By Eric Gatobu
A report released by the
United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA) in 2013 indicated that Kenya’s
population structure comprising 43 percent under the age of 15 is a major
impediment to economic development.
The young population
continually increases the high dependency ratio in the country with more than
half of the population depending on incomes earned by a meager thirty six
percent working population.
UNPFA Kenya Assistant
Representative Cecilia Kimemia articulates that Kenya will enjoy the benefits
of a demographic dividend if it reduces its fertility rate that currently stands
at 4.6 children per woman.
“Economic development
will occur when there is a large population who are gainfully employed and a
small number of dependents,” Kimemia said during a workshop to review actions
required to accelerate progress towards a demographic dividend in Kenya.
Reduction of poverty has
been the mainstay of many Kenya’s economic development policies since 1965. But
even up to date 4 out of every 10 Kenyans live in extreme poverty with the
number of the poor ever increasing. The ever increasing incidence of poverty
occasioned especially among larger households is attributable to the increased
dependency burden, where the whole family must share a given level of
resources, income and consumption.
Kenya’s population is
growing exponentially where it has more than tripled from 10.9 million people
in 1969 to 38.6 million people in 2009. Estimates derived from the fertility rate
(number of children per woman) portend that by 2030 the population will grow to
65.9 million. With 48 percent of all Kenyan women being of reproductive age and
the large number of young people entering the reproductive age every year (the
young age structure) there is a powerful momentum for future population growth
to support these estimates.
Speaking at a media
sensitization forum on population and development in Nairobi early this month,
the director of population at the National Council for Population and
Development (NCPD) Jane Wanjuria said that the more than half of sexually
active women in the country are not using contraceptives.
“The contraceptive prevalence rate in Kenya
stands at 43% which is in fact an improvement from 36% in 2004.”
She noted that the
country’s population was increasing by just over one million every year
according to the 2009 population census and the fact that the current economic
status isn’t able to manage the rapid population growth rate.
Seventy percent of
Kenyans live the in rural areas and depend almost in entirety on farming as
their basic source of livelihood. Population growth contributes to a reduced
amount of arable land per capita available to rural farmers and their children.
The report indicates that Almost 70 percent of people live in rural areas, and
two out of three rural farmers do not believe the land they own is sufficient
for their children to stay and live.
Incidentally it is in
the rural areas where there is the highest fertility rates where most of the
poorest Kenyans live and the lowest levels of education recorded. The report
indicates that there is a relationship between education attainment and
fertility levels. Women with higher levels of education tend to have fewer
children. The report indicates that Women with no education have an average of
more than twice as many children as women who attended secondary school or
higher.
Similarly level of
poverty has an influence on fertility with poorer women tending to have more
children. Currently, the total fertility rate for poor women is more than twice
those of the richest group (7.0 versus 2.9). Women who are poor are also more
likely to enter family formation much earlier, their median age at first birth
is three years earlier than the wealthiest group at 18.9 years. Despite their
early entry into active sex life their use of contraceptive stands at only 17%
compared to 48% among the wealthiest group.
Youthful populations
The incidence of
youthful population in a country could be attributed by a high population of
young people due to high birth rates and reduction in infant mortality rates
due to better nutrition, education and medical care. This could be true for
countries like India and Brazil.
Another cause is where
birth rates are high but death rates begin to fall, lots of developing
countries are at this stage due to improved medical care but poor education, as
such child-bearing is prolonged.
A young population has
perceived merits especially if it is matched with adequate resources and
infrastructure. For instance it gives a country the chance to build an educated
and civilized community, provides a growing market for manufactured goods,
sources of innovation and ideas, and also provides a large tax base for the
country
In a country like India
where nearly 60 percent of its population is less than 30 years, it gives a
distinct advantage in the global outsourcing market as it provides for a large,
educated workforce capable of meeting the brainpower of the global economy.
It is projected that between the years 2010-2030, India will add 241 Million
people in working-age population (children currently in the education system),
Brazil will add around 18 million, while China will add a meager 10 million
people during the same time. So even with all the drawbacks that these
countries have, scholars argue that this particular aspect is going to prove
pivotal in making countries like India the world leader in coming years.
World famous Swedish Global health expert and data visionary in
interview on TedTalks projected that the current population status of India and
other Asian countries will be the major contributors of their ‘eventual’
catching up with countries like the UK and US in terms of economic conditions.
However the disadvantages
of a young population have been so profoundly seen especially in developing
countries in Africa downplaying any perceived benefits.
Two professors from the
University of the Philippines rubbished the claim that a young population is a
good source of labour and consumption, stressing the negative effects on the
economy, especially in the household-savings rate.
Professors Dennis Mapa
and Kristine Joy Briones from the University of the Philippines in Diliman
said, “The high proportion of young dependents creates a negative effect in the
aggregate household savings, which results in the decrease in the overall
household-savings rate,” in their paper, “Population Dynamics and Elderly
Saving: An Econometric Analysis,” presented at the recent National Academy of
Science and Technology’s Annual Scientific Meeting on 2009.
Gambia has one of the most youthful populations in the world
with more than half (about 63.55%) below 25 years with only five percent aged
above 60 years. It is grappling with managing rapid population explosion amid
scarce resources to provide healthcare, education and create employment. It is
one of the poorest countries in Africa with a birth rate of 40 per 1000
population and for every 1000 children born 11 mothers will die in child birth.
People do not live between the age of 40 – 50, the life expectancy for women is
57 and for men 53. It is thought that the population will double every 28
years. 95% of Gambia’s population are Muslim and there has been a taboo on
contraceptives such that on average each woman in her life time will have 7
children.
Gambia is used as a typical example of how a young
population can be detrimental to economic development in terms of high
dependency ratios, strain on resources and basic services, unavailability of
jobs, shanty towns, ecological destruction and possible chaos and economic
instability.
Contraceptive use in Kenya
There has been
deliberate efforts by the Kenyan government to popularize family planning
methods in an attempt to curb the runaway population explosion over the years.in
2012 the NCPD launched sessional paper no.3 called Population Policy for
National development as a reactive action to the findings from the 2009
national census. The policy objective was to slow down population growth by
lowering fertility rates and mortality rates.
Mrs. Wanjuria observed
that low mortality rates are desirable since it’s an assurance of higher life
expectancy rates and would reduce number of births.
“Some couples bear many
children in fear that some of them might not reach adulthood. If they can be
sure that the children they already have will survive then they might bear less
children.” She said.
She observes that
mortality rate is quite insignificant in reducing population growth as the birth
rate is far much higher.
Fertility rates in urban
areas (2.9 lifetime births per woman) are much lower compared to those in rural
areas (5.2 lifetime births per woman). This could be attributed to increase in
contraceptive use and the effects of urbanization despite the obvious high
costs of raising children in urban areas. Women in rural areas also, as
societal values change, no longer wish to bear a large number of children but
the extent with which contraceptives have penetrated the society is quite low.
While most women in
Kenya want fewer children than in the past, contraceptive prevalence rates for
modern methods remain low at around 39 percent but with varying regional and
social strata differences. Kenya’s unmet need for family planning among married
women stands at 26 percent with higher proportions among the poor and
uneducated. The biggest constraint to extending contraceptive prevalence as
cited in the 2013 UNPFA Report is overdependence on donor funding as reflected
in the recent shift in emphasis from Family Planning support to HIV and AIDS.
Dr. K’Oyugi Boniface,
the director of NCPD, in a 2010 publication believed that Kenya should follow
in the footsteps of countries such as Thailand and South Korea where they have
effectively managed growth rates from introducing a limit on births per woman.
“There is a real danger
of civil strife arising as people squabble for the scarce resources,' K’Oyugi
warned.
However this subtle
suggestion has been opposed by the church. The Catholic Church in particular
has continued to advise its congregants against use of family planning methods
and is currently engaging the government in a legal tussle over an alleged
introduction of sterility component in an antenatal vaccine.
Failures
As at 2013 there were
approximately 1.1 million married women in Kenya who had unmet need for
contraception, the figures could be higher for thousands of women of
reproductive age who are in active sexual relationships.
Despite experiencing
rapid decline in birth rate in the early 1990s, Kenya is one of the countries
in sub-
Saharan Africa with the
highest proportion of unplanned pregnancy (43%). Nearly 7,500 women die every
year of pregnancy related conditions while 1.8 million married women have
unplanned births every year.
The government developed
a National Family Planning Costed Implementation Plan 2010-2015 to reposition
family planning within the national development agenda. The plan was seen as a
grand move to guide the budgeting process for contraceptives but the budgeting
allocations and expenditures towards family planning and contraceptives for
2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 years have been constant at $ 6.5 million with $
5.9 million allocated towards procurement and $589, 000 allocated towards the
distribution of family planning, begging the question whether the government is
committed.
Research conducted by
Health Rights Advocacy Forum (HRAF) on the government investment toward
contraceptives found the contraceptive budgeting process by the Ministry of
Health, Department of Reproductive Health (DRH), and development partners tend
to be dictated by bureaucratic processes. This results in Budgets based on
inadequate revenues and budget ceilings-not on DRH key priorities.
This clearly indicates
the mismatch between the increased demand for these services as population
increases and the investment in their provision by government. NCPD director of
population Jane Wanjuria mentioned the challenge numerous of contraceptive
‘stock-outs’ at health clinics contributing to inadequate access to family
planning services at the community and facility level.
